Brain gain down the drain, would force a longer recovery

University education is a key path to attracting and retaining skilled migrants in the United States labour force, something that has been termed ‘brain gain’. In this year of the COVID-19 pandemic travel bans, an immigration moratorium and the shift to online learning will produce a loss of degree-seeking international students. This will have real and lasting consequences.

Without international students, the US will not only lose immeasurable cultural benefits but economic benefits as well. Last year alone, the international education sector contributed US$41 billion and supported almost half a million jobs in the economy.

There are also more foreign-born scientists, engineers and start-up company founders than native-born Americans and our lives rely on the technology, services and businesses they generate.

International students worldwide still want to go abroad to obtain their university education. A survey in India showed that 70% of students still wanted to move ahead with their plans to study abroad. But will international students across the world be able to do so?

Travel bans and the immigration moratorium

Although not as strict as other countries that have completely blocked entry to all foreigners, current US travel bans block entry for people originating from China, Iran and European countries. A Chinese colleague told me she will not visit home this summer for fear of not being able to return to the US to complete her PhD.

Some leading sending countries of international students are China, the United Kingdom and Iran. These three countries alone account for almost 350,000 students or about 35% of all international students in the US.

For the other two-thirds of students who may still be eligible to gain entry to the US, an immigration moratorium will legally prevent it. An immigration halt announced on 21 April 2020 will pause the issuance of permanent residency green cards for at least 60 days. This could indefinitely stop both immigrant and non-immigrant visa application processing under the same legal authority imposed by the travel ban that was upheld by the Supreme Court.

The Migration Policy Institute has acknowledged that the State Department has largely stopped processing visas. Other countries, such as Canada, are welcoming international students. However, students must have had their permit issued prior to Canada’s travel ban. For students coming to the US, my international students tell me that visa problems mean that incoming students will have to defer their start date by at least a year.

Online education problems

Another option could be for students to attend class remotely. Higher education institutions are uncertain when they will reopen for on-campus classes. Boston University estimates that it will not hold in-person courses until January 2021. Other universities, such as Harvard and MIT, anticipate they will be exclusively online for the entire school year.

Online learning presents additional challenges for international students if they are in their home country. For instance, one of my undergraduate students emailed me about not being able to attend class regularly because he must negotiate the time difference between California and Japan. Other students have had issues accessing computing technology and a reliable internet connection.

Downward trends

These three issues together suggest that the number of international students coming to the US will drop. It is estimated that it will be five years before international student enrolment worldwide will reach pre-COVID levels. This is already a reality.

My prior research on international student trends and crises showed that after 9/11, it took five years for a 20% drop in international student visa issuance to recover. More recent US Department of State data show that student visa issuance began to decline again in 2016 and continues to fall.

Downward trends like these indicate a softening of the US international education market. In 2001, the United States hosted one out of every three globally mobile students, but by 2018 it hosted just one in five. In other words, international students are obtaining their university degrees abroad, but not in the US.

Other countries rising as educational hotspots, such as the United Arab Emirates and Russia, have adopted higher education internationalisation policies, immigration reforms and academic excellence initiatives to attract foreign students.

After COVID-19, the US may see its brain gain go down the drain. There will be fewer American-educated foreign-born scientists, engineers and entrepreneurs. There will be fewer jobs and less money earned from the international education sector. Without skilled migrants who, together with American workers, produce social and economic innovation, the post-pandemic recovery will be slow.

Karin AC Johnson, a PhD candidate in the department of sociology at the University of California, Riverside in the United States, researches changing international education trends and student mobility in times of crises. She is a political economist who specialises in international migration, higher education and policy. E-mail: karin.johnson@email.ucr.edu.