Arctic approaches climate change tipping point

Humanity faces dire consequences as a result of the first signs of dangerous climate change in the Arctic. Leading international scientists say the Arctic is fast approaching a series of imminent ‘tipping points’ that could trigger an abrupt domino effect of large-scale climate change across the planet.

In a paper published in the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences’ journal AMBIO and a parallel commentary in Nature Climate Change, lead author Professor Carlos Duarte said the Arctic region contained arguably the greatest concentration of potential tipping elements for global climate change.

“If set in motion, they can generate profound climate change which places the Arctic not at the periphery but at the core of the Earth system,” Duarte said. “There is evidence that these forces are starting to be set in motion. This has major consequences for the future of humankind as climate change progresses.”

He said the loss of Arctic summer sea ice forecast over the next four decades, if not before, was expected to have abrupt knock-on effects in northern mid-latitudes, including Beijing, Tokyo, London, Moscow, Berlin and New York.

Research showed that the Arctic was warming at three times the global average and the loss of sea ice – which had melted faster in summer than predicted – was linked tentatively to recent extremely cold winters in Europe.

Duarte is director of the University of Western Australia’s Oceans Institute and winner of last year’s Prix d'Excellence, awarded by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. He said the most dangerous aspect of Arctic climate change was the risk of passing critical tipping points.

Arctic records showed unambiguously that sea ice volume had declined dramatically over the past two decades. In the next 10 years, summer sea ice could be largely confined to north of coastal Greenland and Ellesmere Island, and was likely to disappear entirely by mid-century.

“Some environmental and biological elements may be linked in a domino effect of tipping points that cascade rapidly once the summer sea ice is lost,” Duarte said.

But semantic confusion masquerading as scientific debate – although providing excellent media fodder – had delayed an urgent need to start managing the reality of dangerous climate change in the Arctic, he said.