GLOBAL: Changes looming in global student market

After analysing international trade data, Angel Calderon of RMIT University in Australia predicts the sun is setting on international students from some East Asian countries, continues to shine on India and China, while sunrise countries such as Chile and the Czech Republic may not yet be visible on the horizon but will be a source of international students in future.

Traditional sources of mobile students such as Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Malaysia and Singapore are now 'sunset' markets, with the number of students from these countries going to Australia, Britain the US and elsewhere for higher education remaining stable or expected to decline in the next five to 10 years.

However, India and China will continue to be 'sunshine' markets for international students going abroad, with medium growth to 2020, according to Calderon in an analysis presented on 13 September at the OECD's Institutional Management in Higher Education conference in Paris, titled "Higher Education in a World Changed Utterly. Doing more with less".

Other Sunshine states likely to emerge as exporters of students in the near future include Pakistan, Brazil, Vietnam, Brazil, Russia and Georgia.

In his paper "Emerging Countries for Student Recruitment in Tertiary Education", Calderon projected global international student numbers to the year 2020, based on international trade data. "Countries have been benefitting from the link between trade and education," he told University World News.

Although some analysts have attempted to assess international student mobility trends based on economic growth rates and GDP, this is the first time trade flows have been used as a predictor of student movement.

"Intuitively, countries that have closer relations in terms of exchanging goods and services are likely to encourage the cross-border flows of people for study between them," he said.

In his study of trade patterns and their growth rates, Calderon found that countries with faster growth in high-value trade products compared to non-high value products were the most likely to see a rise in students going abroad.

This pattern creates conditions for the labour force to look for "greater opportunities to further their education, skill base and skill development, thus creating a demand for student mobility," he said.

Sunset countries are those where student mobility, while high, is no longer growing. "Sunset countries are strong in trade and are reaching a level of development that their situation is becoming reversed from exporters of students to net importers of students."

Japan and Malaysia sent abroad fewer students in 2007 than in 1999, according to international data. Japan was 7% down over the period and Malaysia saw a 4% drop.

Some countries such as Malaysia and Thailand that previously sent students abroad are now becoming hosts of internationally mobile students.

Sunshine markets have been sending students abroad for some years and show potential for further growth in years to come.

"With the exception of students from Europe, students from countries in this cluster tend to be spread across multiple regions," Calderon said. "Sunshine state Russia would be a country feeding lots of students to Europe and the US, but based on trade data, I suspect there are still a few years to go."

China and India will continue in the 'sunshine' category of countries sending students abroad.

"There are still parts of China near the industrial centres reaching a level of development where they will be wanting to acquire skills," Calderon said. "While India has yet to feel its weight in education generally."

"Countries like Chile and the Czech Republic are becoming more integrated in global trade, and could begin to attract students," he added. "Sunshine countries show potential for further growth in student mobility for years to come. Examples are Romania, Colombia and Saudi Arabia."

Meanwhile, a number of 'dawn' and 'sunrise' markets could start to emerge in five to 10 years as sources of international students. These include Latin America countries such as Chile, Bolivia and Peru and Central Asian states such as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

In the last 10 years over 50% of international students were from Asia. But "past performance of global student mobility is not indicative of future trends," Calderon said.

With a large group of 'sunshine' countries taking the place of 'sunset' nations, "for host countries that attract considerable numbers of international students, the loss of a market or its relative decline will be hard to replace by a single market."