US: The future of the internet IV

The latest in a series of expert studies, The Future of the Internet IV, has revealed "fascinating new perspectives on the way the internet is affecting human intelligence and the ways that information is being shared and rendered", according to the Imagining the Internet Center at Elon University and the Pew Research Center's Internet & American Life Project. The web-based survey obtained opinions from nearly 900 internet stakeholders including prominent scientists, business leaders, consultants, writers and technology developers.

The study was authored by Janna Anderson, director of the Imagining the Internet Center, and Lee Rainie, the director of Pew Internet and former managing editor of the US News and World Report.

"Three out of four experts said our use of the internet enhances and augments human intelligence, and two-thirds said use of the internet has improved reading, writing and rendering of knowledge," said Anderson. "There are still many people, however, who are critics of the impact of Google, Wikipedia and other online tools."

The survey canvassed 895 internet experts and users and, the report stresses, are not "projectable to any population other than the experts". They were asked about social, political and economic change by 2020. Here is the synopsis of the survey's main findings:

* Google won't make us stupid: 76% of the experts agreed with the statement: "By 2020, people's use of the internet has enhanced human intelligence; as people are allowed unprecedented access to more information they become smarter and make better choices.

* Reading, writing, and the rendering of knowledge will be improved: 65% agreed with the statement "by 2020 it will be clear that the internet has enhanced and improved reading, writing and the rendering of knowledge." Still, 32% of respondents expressed concerns that by 2020 "it will be clear that the internet has diminished and endangered reading, writing and the rendering of knowledge".

* Innovation will continue to catch us by surprise: 80% of the experts agreed that the "hot gadgets and applications that will capture the imaginations of users in 2020 will often come 'out of the blue'".

* Respondents hope information will flow relatively freely online, though there will be flashpoints over control of the internet. Concerns over control of the internet were expressed in answers to a question about the end-to-end principle: 61% responded that the internet will remain as its founders envisioned, however many who agreed with the statement that "most disagreements over the way information flows online will be resolved in favour of a minimum number of restrictions" also noted that their response was a hope and not necessarily their true expectation.

One in three chose to agree with the statement that "the internet will mostly become a technology where intermediary institutions that control the architecture and...content will be successful in gaining the right to manage information and the method by which people access it".

* Anonymous online activity will be challenged, though a modest majority still think it will possible in 2020. There was more of a split verdict among the expert respondents about the fate of online anonymity. Some 55% agreed that internet users will still be able to communicate anonymously, while 41% agreed that by 2020 "anonymous online activity is sharply curtailed".